- Ethereum trades below key support and moving averages, signaling bearish control despite long-term channel structure suggesting recovery potential.
- Bearish momentum continues with weak volume and elevated volatility, but ascending channel hints at a possible move back toward $4,000.
- Analysts remain divided as Ethereum approaches historical demand zones, with technicals supporting both downside risk and upside reversal.
Ethereum has entered a critical technical zone, with opposing chart interpretations dividing analysts. The price recently dropped to $1,608, continuing a bearish slide from 2024 highs near $4,000. This decline pushed ETH beneath the critical $1,700 support level, a key zone during previous consolidations. Consequently, Ethereum now trades well below its 18-week weighted moving average, set at $2,195. This bearish momentum adds weight to concerns about further downside risks.
Besides price weakness, Ethereum shows failure to reclaim its 8-period simple moving average. It also struggles with declining volume participation. The 20-period volume moving average sits at 306,817, while recent trading dropped to 243,993. Volatility remains elevated. The Average True Range (ATR) is currently at 452.51, reflecting persistent price swings. Additionally, the ADX measures trend strength at 31.52, supporting the ongoing bearish trajectory.
Multi-Year Bearish Breakdown Signals Further Risk
The long-term structure outlines a clear distribution phase, now followed by a markdown period. Ethereum’s pattern of lower highs and lower lows confirms this trajectory. Hence, analyst Peter Brandt suggest price could revisit a historical demand range between $1,000 and $1,400. Notably, a downside target below $700 aligns with a demand zone last tested in 2020. This zone previously ignited strong rallies, but current momentum weakens chances of a bullish reversal.
Moreover, Ethereum’s failure to close above major moving averages highlights market hesitation. Its inability to gain bullish traction despite consolidation attempts signals deeper structural weakness. Price remains trapped in a volatile band. So far, there are no bullish reversal signals on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Ascending Channel Offers Hopeful Counter-Narrative
However, not all perspectives are bearish. Titan of Crypto presents a contrasting long-term outlook, highlighting an ascending channel from 2022 through 2026. Ethereum’s price recently rebounded from the lower trendline near $1,600. Previous bounces from this support zone triggered rallies toward $4,000. Hence, this macro channel suggests potential for recovery if support holds.
Additionally, the structure shows consistent higher lows, keeping the channel intact. A projected move to the upper trendline targets $4,000+ by late 2025. Consequently, this bullish formation counters the current bearish momentum. The key question now centers on whether Ethereum can sustain this channel or confirm further breakdown.
