- Bitcoin’s Realized Cap continues to rise, but market price lags, showing weakening bullish momentum in current trading conditions.
- Institutional BTC purchases no longer impact the market as before, highlighting strong sell pressure and cautious investor behavior.
- On-chain and technical indicators signal a potential bear phase, with expectations of slow recovery over the next six months.
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior signals a shift towards bearish conditions, according to an assessment by CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju. As prices hover around $82,950, Ju notes that market activity no longer supports upward momentum, despite significant acquisitions. The analyst points to on-chain metrics that reflect a divergence between Realized Cap and Market Cap as a key indicator of changing market conditions.
Total Bitcoin worth equals the Realized Cap because it measures the current worth of all Bitcoins based on their last movement rate. Data from Ju indicates that Realized Cap keeps increasing as the market capitalization lowers. The market receives new capital at elevated price levels which fails to maintain or increase spot prices due to weak investor demand. A declining market sentiment emerges from the gap which exists between investors’ perception of value and current market purchasing costs of Bitcoins.
Large acquisitions fail to move the market
Ju highlights the recent purchase of 22,048 BTC for $1.92 billion by institutional player Strategy. However, unlike past acquisitions, this transaction failed to boost the market significantly. Ju argues that this reflects growing sell pressure, where even large buys are insufficient to push the price upward. The inability of capital inflow to produce upward price movement is historically associated with bear phases.
Besides on-chain data, chart patterns show that Bitcoin consolidates within a bearish pennant. This technical formation often precedes further price declines. Analysts like Crypto Sat anticipate a possible short-term drop to $80,000. Despite favorable long-term fundamentals, the current technical setup remains weak, with few signs of imminent recovery.
Short-term relief unlikely despite capital influx
Ju notes that while sell pressure may ease at any time, a sustained reversal could take several months. Historically, real recoveries after similar conditions have required at least six months of consolidation. Therefore, expectations for an immediate rebound remain low.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent compared Bitcoin to gold as a store of value. Despite bearish short-term trends, such endorsements may help maintain investor confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.
