Bitcoin Dominance Nears Critical Resistance, Altcoin Season on the Horizon?

• Bitcoin dominance approaches long-term resistance, a level that previously triggered altcoin rallies in past market cycles.
• Historical patterns show BTC dominance rejecting at this level, signaling a potential shift toward altcoin season if repeated.
• A breakout above resistance would mark a major trend shift, potentially delaying an altcoin surge while strengthening Bitcoin’s position.

According to analyst Mostache, Bitcoin’s market dominance is testing a trendline that has held strong for nearly eight years. Each previous touch of this resistance led to an altcoin season. Moreover, it is also touching an indicator that has never been broken before. This scenario raises key questions about whether history will repeat itself or if Bitcoin will finally break through.

Bitcoin Dominance Trends and Historical Rejections

The post-2017 popularity increase of Bitcoin has come with a pattern. A price rally in cryptocurrencies was accompanied by a sharp drop in 2017. Resistance faced by the trendline caused the Bitcoin dominance to drop. 

Bitcoin tried again, especially in 2019 and 2021, to regain market dominance. Bitcoin was rejected at an equal level of resistance both times. Rejection in 2021 coincided with an international market cycle that made the relevance of the trendline even stronger.

A moving average indicator, shown in blue, follows the overall trend. Additionally, several yellow-highlighted areas indicate multiple resistance tests. These points reveal repeated failed breakout attempts over the years.

Current Market Structure and 2025 Outlook

From 2022 onward, Bitcoin dominance steadily increased. Each resistance test resulted in a temporary pullback, yet the upward trend remained intact. These movements suggest a gradual attempt to break above historical resistance.

Now, Bitcoin dominance is approaching this key level once again. A purple arrow marks the 2025 test, indicating another potential turning point. If Bitcoin follows previous cycles, dominance could face rejection, leading to an altcoin rally.

Conversely, a confirmed breakout would indicate Bitcoin gaining further market share, possibly delaying an altcoin season. However, resistance levels have historically held firm, making this moment crucial.