Crypto Expert Predicts Longest Bull Run, But There’s a Catch

• Bitcoin sits at a key bull-bear boundary, with analysts watching demand trends to confirm the market’s direction.
• Historical trends suggest Bitcoin follows a two-year cycle, with the next month crucial for confirming a bullish or bearish shift.
• A drop below $77K is unlikely, but leveraged bets are risky as Bitcoin consolidates before a potential long-term bull run.

Ki Young Ju, a well-known Bitcoin analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are at a critical bull-bear boundary. He expects this to be the longest bull run in history. However, he acknowledges the possibility of being wrong if demand does not recover. 

He believes that at least another month of data is needed to confirm whether the market is shifting toward a bearish trend. If every indicator confirms a downtrend, he plans to acknowledge his miscalculation.

Bitcoin’s Historical Market Trends

Bitcoin has followed cyclical patterns since 2012. Between 2012 and 2014, its market capitalization surged, driven by strong bullish momentum. Green bars on the market chart indicate extended bull market phases, while red bars highlight bearish corrections. In 2015, the market turned bearish before rebounding in subsequent years.

Bitcoin was able to grow amazingly between 2016 and 2018, with the high in late 2017. The market then turned bear in 2018 and immediately produced a sharp decline. A recovery phase ensued in 2019 and early 2020, then a brief setback before a strong move upward in late 2020 and 2021. The bull run drove Bitcoin to new levels before a 2022 bear market.

Current Market Indicators and Future Outlook

By 2023, Bitcoin began recovering, with green bars signaling renewed bullish momentum. Entering 2024, the market capitalization continued an upward trajectory with cyclical fluctuations. According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s price should remain strong, barring unforeseen demand drops.

Besides, he remains confident that a drop below $77,000 is unlikely. Even in the worst-case scenario, he predicts Bitcoin will consolidate around $77,000 before resuming its upward trend. He also advises against leveraged directional bets at this stage, warning that both long and short positions carry significant risks.

Consequently, the next month or two will be crucial in determining the market’s direction. If Bitcoin demand fails to recover, indicators may fully signal a downtrend. However, if the market stabilizes and demand grows, the bull run could continue until April 2025, following the typical two-year cycle.